Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

The market resolves YES only if BOTH (1) the US conducts a qualifying military strike on Iranian territory by June 30 2026 AND (2) the Islamic Republic's core governing structures remain intact through that date. Given the current date of June 8 2026, the 21-day window is extremely short. While US strikes on Iran have already occurred in the recent past, no evidence suggests an imminent new US military action within the next three weeks. Even if such a strike were to occur, the probability that