活躍市場
100
24h 交易量
$24.8M
AI 每日市場摘要
2026年7月24日2026年7月24日Polymarket市場摘要： 今日市場整體情緒偏向保守與觀望，在124項分析中，持有（Hold）部位佔比最高，顯示交易者在面對地緣政治與能源市場波動時，傾向採取防禦性策略。數據顯示買入「否」（Buy No）的次數顯著高於「是」，反映出市場對特定事件發生的預期較為悲觀。 熱門類別集中在「其他」領域，主要圍繞中東局勢與能源價格。值得關注的機會方面，WTI原油價格是否觸及95美元成為今日最大亮點，模型給出高達0.24的優勢值，建議買入「是」。此外，針對中東地區停火協議及荷姆茲海峽交通恢復的預測，市場普遍看空，建議持續關注相關「否」部位的佈局。 整體而言，目前市場信心指數穩定在0.82，交易者正謹慎應對月底前的地緣政治風險。建議投資人密切監控能源價格走勢，並對中東局勢的進展保持高度警覺，避免過度曝險。
類別熱力圖
其他
36
$10.9M
均價 27.2%
體育
22
$5.8M
均價 29.9%
經濟
7
$3.5M
均價 25.4%
政治
22
$2.9M
均價 10.7%
加密貨幣
8
$1.1M
均價 39.2%
社群媒體
5
$622K
均價 20.6%
AI 機會面板
| 市場 | 訊號 | 價格 | Edge | 信心度 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July? | YES | 50.6% | +24.4% | 80.0% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31? | NO | 40.5% | +14.5% | 65.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July? | NO | 78.5% | +6.5% | 85.0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in July? | YES | 57.0% | +5.0% | 65.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | NO | 77.5% | +2.5% | 85.0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | NO | 87.5% | +2.5% | 85.0% |
| Iran leadership change by July 31? | NO | 96.1% | +1.9% | 95.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 24? | NO | 97.3% | +1.7% | 95.0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July? | NO | 93.8% | +1.1% | 85.0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | NO | 73.5% | +-1.5% | 75.0% |
交易量排行
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
其他$2.1M
0.2%
YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
經濟$1.1M
74.5%
YES
Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in 2026-27?
其他$1.1M
99.7%
YES
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner
體育$1.1M
0.1%
YES
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be between 46 million and 50 million?
體育$864K
100.0%
YES
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend
體育$825K
0.1%
YES
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
其他$819K
0.1%
YES
Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
其他$773K
0.1%
YES
24h 價格異動
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
其他14.5% → 22.5%
+8.0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?
其他63.5% → 69.5%
+6.0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
其他23.5% → 19.0%
-4.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
加密貨幣25.5% → 21.5%
-4.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
其他10.5% → 12.5%
+2.0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?
其他5.3% → 3.5%
-1.8%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
加密貨幣6.2% → 5.5%
-0.6%
新上架市場
XRP Up or Down - July 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
加密貨幣$0
50.0%
YES
Hyperliquid Up or Down - July 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
經濟$0
50.0%
YES
Ethereum Up or Down - July 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
加密貨幣$0
50.0%
YES
Dogecoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
加密貨幣$0
50.0%
YES
BNB Up or Down - July 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
經濟$0
50.0%
YES
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
加密貨幣$0
50.0%
YES
Game Handicap: Hrymovskyi Oleksii (-1.5) vs Chepurnyi Artem (+1.5)
體育$0
50.0%
YES
Chepurnyi Artem vs. Hrymovskyi Oleksii: Total Games O/U 3.5
體育$0
50.0%
YES
AI 歷史戰績
勝率
85.5%
1439/1684
超越基準
+0.6%
Brier 分數
0.102
<0.25 = 良好
已分析市場
1684
各類別表現
| 類別 | 總數 | 勝率 | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| 其他 | 1439 | 84.6% | 0.110 |
| 加密貨幣 | 223 | 89.7% | 0.054 |
| 科技 | 22 | 95.5% | 0.036 |
校準曲線
藍色 = 實際勝率，黃線 = 預期值（完美校準線）
每週勝率趨勢
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