US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026?

The market is currently priced at $0.505 for YES, indicating a slight edge for the 'No' outcome based on current trading. However, the recent news indicates a significant upward trend in the YES price over the past week, with a 24.7% increase. This suggests growing market sentiment towards a peace deal. The description of a 'permanent peace deal' is strict, requiring explicit confirmation of a lasting end to military hostilities. While tensions remain, as evidenced by the recent Strait of Hormuz