Iran closes its airspace by June 15?

The market resolves on June 15, 2026. Recent news from April 2024 and January 2026 indicates that Iran has previously closed its airspace due to geopolitical tensions. However, the market is currently priced at $0.365 for YES, implying a 36.5% probability, and the price trend over the last 7 days has been declining significantly from $0.51 to $0.36. This suggests decreasing market sentiment for a YES resolution. Given that the market is already past the peak of tensions related to the April 2024