US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

The market resolves on June 15, 2026, which is only 9 days away. Despite recent news headlines suggesting a deal is 'near' or that Trump claims the US and Iran are 'close to a deal,' the price of YES has been in a steep decline over the past 7 days, falling from $0.26 to $0.12. This indicates significant selling pressure and a lack of conviction that a permanent peace deal will be reached within the remaining timeframe. The description specifies a 'permanent peace deal' requiring explicit confir