Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, with only 5.7 days remaining. Despite a recent surge in the YES price, the current price of $0.0955 implies a very low probability (9.6%) of a permanent peace deal. Recent news indicates ongoing hostilities, with Hezbollah shelling Israeli vehicles and Israel/Lebanon discussing a ceasefire extension rather than a permanent deal. While there are mentions of peace talks and potential deals, the description explicitly requires a *permanent* peace deal, not a tem