US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?

The market resolves on June 30, 2026, which is approximately 24.8 days away. The current price for YES is $0.2750, implying a 27.5% probability. However, recent news indicates a dimming prospect for a deal, with reports of the White House stance and Trump's 'no hurry' approach negatively impacting talks. Furthermore, the price trend over the last 7 days has been consistently declining, a significant drop from $0.42 to $0.28, suggesting increasing bearish sentiment. Despite a recent news item sug