US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?

The market is currently priced at $0.575, implying a 57.5% probability. Recent news indicates ongoing negotiations for a 60-day ceasefire extension, but also suggests the White House stance is dimming prospects. The price trend shows a significant decline over the past 7 days, moving from $0.69 to $0.57, indicating increasing bearish sentiment. Despite the existence of negotiations, the conflicting news and price trend suggest a slightly lower probability than the current market price. The user