Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

The market resolves on May 31, 2026. With only 3.5 days remaining and the current price of YES at $0.0105 (implying a 1.1% probability), the market overwhelmingly expects Iran to retain control of Kharg Island. The recent news focuses on increased tensions and Iranian control in the Strait of Hormuz, not on any loss of control over Kharg Island. The price trend has been strongly declining, indicating a lack of belief in the YES outcome. The definition of 'no longer under Iranian control' require