Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?

The market question asks whether China will commence a military offensive to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by June 30, 2026. With only 23 days remaining until the deadline and no active military mobilization, amphibious preparations, or credible intelligence indicating imminent action, the probability of an invasion commencing in this narrow window is extremely low. Recent reporting from US intelligence and think tanks continues to assess invasion risk as low for 2026-2027, and no