Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

With only 16 days remaining until the June 30, 2026 deadline, the probability of a permanent peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah is extremely low. Recent news shows ongoing Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, mass displacement in Tyre, and explicit Israeli warnings of retaliation against Hezbollah strongholds. These active military operations directly contradict the conditions needed for a permanent peace agreement. The market definition requires either signed written agreements or clear