Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

The market is currently trading at $0.01 for YES, implying a 1.1% probability. Given the extremely short time remaining (10.9 days) until the May 31st deadline and the current market price, it is highly unlikely that the Iranian regime will fall. The news of airstrikes and assassination attempts, while increasing tensions, has not translated into a significant market shift towards regime collapse, and the price trend has been declining. The existing portfolio context shows a position in NO, whic