Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?

The market is currently pricing in a very low probability (2.7%) that Kharg Island will no longer be under Iranian control by June 30, 2026. This aligns with the current geopolitical situation, where despite regional tensions (as evidenced by recent news of drone shootdowns and Lebanon conflict escalations), there are no direct indications or credible reports suggesting an imminent loss of Iranian control over Kharg Island. The definition of 'no longer under control' is strict, requiring a signi