US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

The market resolves on June 30, 2026, and the current date is May 27, 2026, leaving approximately 33 days for a permanent peace deal to be agreed upon. Recent news suggests a potential draft deal is expected within 24 hours, and that Trump has extended a deadline for language finalization, indicating ongoing, albeit potentially complex, negotiations. However, the market price for YES is currently $0.455, implying a 45.5% probability. Given the short timeframe remaining and the historical difficu