Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?

The market resolves on June 30, 2026, which is approximately 14 days from the current date of June 15, 2026. Recent news indicates ongoing Israeli military activity and strikes in Lebanon, with reports of advances and captures of locations like Beaufort Castle. There is no indication of a planned withdrawal; instead, reports suggest Israel will not leave if the ceasefire does not hold. The current market price of $0.065 for YES reflects a very low probability of withdrawal. Given the ongoing con