Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?

The market is pricing in a 1.5% probability that the Fed will decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting. This is extremely low, and the current market price reflects a strong consensus that such a large cut is highly unlikely at that specific meeting. Given the current date of March 28, 2026, and the meeting being over 2.5 months away, it is improbable that the Fed would make such a significant move unless there was an extreme economic shock. The recent news does not indicat