Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

The market resolves on May 31, 2026. Despite recent news suggesting a potential US-Iran deal, this market specifically asks about an *Israel-Iran* permanent peace deal. The geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran are extremely high, characterized by proxy conflicts and direct confrontations. A permanent peace deal, as defined by the market (explicitly ending military hostilities and being formally adopted or publicly confirmed), is highly improbable given the current state of relations and