Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

The market resolves on May 24th, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. With only 3 days remaining and the current price of YES at $0.16 (implying a 16% probability), the market is pricing in a low chance of a major airspace closure. Recent news indicates a de-escalation of tensions, with reports of Trump canceling military strikes and discussing resuming combat operations (which suggests a potential for future conflict but not an immediate, confirmed closure). The price trend has been declining, further support