Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026?

The market resolves on June 30, 2026, and the current date is June 13, 2026. This leaves approximately 17 days remaining. The current price for YES is $0.053, implying a 5.3% probability. The definition of a 'ground operation' is specific, requiring Israeli military ground forces within Iranian territory, excluding aerial, maritime, intelligence, or proxy actions. Recent news indicates ongoing conflict and strikes involving Iran and Israel, but there is no specific reporting or confirmation of I