Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?

The market resolves to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average of transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60 by June 15, 2026. With only 9.7 days remaining until the deadline and the current market price for 'Yes' at $0.0255 (implying a 2.5% probability), the market is heavily favoring 'No'. The recent news suggests ongoing tensions and Iran reasserting control, which is unlikely to lead to a return to 'normal' traffic levels (defined as 60 transit calls/day average) by the deadline. Furthermore