US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?

The market resolves in 3 days, and the current price for YES is $0.085, implying a 8.5% probability. Recent news indicates ongoing hostilities ('U.S. and Iran Exchange Fire Amid a Declared Truce') and threats ('Iran threatens US sites in Middle East if tankers come under fire'), directly contradicting the premise of a permanent peace deal. While there's mention of Iran mulling a US proposal, the short timeframe and persistent conflict suggest a permanent deal is highly unlikely by May 26, 2026.