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US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?

Last analyzed · by grok

YES price
67.5¢
NO price
32.5¢
24h volume
$59K
Liquidity
$41K
AI recommendation
BUY NO
YES probability
42.0%
Confidence
55%
End date
2026-06-19

Key insight

With only 5.5 days remaining until June 19, no qualifying U.S. announcement extending the ceasefire or announcing a new agreement has occurred. Recent reporting shows Iran stating a deal is 'not imminent' and Trump merely editing draft language rather than finalizing terms. The market price of 67.5% appears to price in overly optimistic assumptions about rapid diplomatic breakthroughs. The strict resolution criteria require a clear public commitment to extension or successor agreement, not just
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