US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?

The market resolves in 3 days on June 7, 2026. Despite recent news headlines from 'Trump Says U.S., Iran Close to Deal' and 'Trump Says Peace Deal Is Near', the current price of YES is only $0.0495, implying a 5% probability. This is a significant drop from its 7-day high of $0.29. The market has been in a strong downtrend for the past week, with 6 out of 7 days showing a decline in the YES price. The description requires a formal written agreement or clear public confirmation from both governme