Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

The market resolves to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average of transit calls in the Strait of Hormuz reaches 60 or above by June 30, 2026. Current prices indicate a 17.5% probability for 'Yes'. The price has declined significantly over the past week, from $0.38 to $0.17, suggesting a bearish sentiment. Recent news highlights ongoing tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, with reports of Iran reasserting control and naval mine discoveries, which are likely to negatively impact tra