US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

The market is currently trading at $0.395, implying a 39.5% probability for a US-Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026. Despite recent news suggesting 'US-Iran peace deal odds climb above 50% by July according to prediction markets', the price trend over the last 7 days has been significantly declining, from a high of $0.71 to the current $0.34, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. The description of a 'permanent peace deal' is stringent, requiring explicit confirmation of a lastin