Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?

The market resolves on July 31, 2026, meaning there are only 44 days left. Despite recent news headlines about potential deals involving Iran and the US, and even mentions of Trump, these do not directly translate to a permanent peace deal between Israel and Iran. The historical context and current geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran make a permanent peace deal highly improbable within such a short timeframe. The market price of $0.25 for YES indicates a 25% implied probability, but gi