Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

The market resolves to 'Yes' if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by July 31, 2026. Recent news indicates mixed signals: Iran agreeing in principle to dispose of enriched uranium, followed by a denial. The UN watchdog censuring Iran suggests ongoing concerns. While there's a recent price trend upwards for YES, the conflicting reports and the UN censure make a definitive agreement by the deadline uncertain. The market price implies a 57.5% chance of NO, which aligns with the c