Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?

The market currently prices the probability of Miguel Díaz-Canel being out as leader of Cuba by June 30th at 7.5%. Given the short timeframe remaining (13.2 days) and the lack of any concrete news or strong indicators suggesting an imminent removal, the current market price appears to be a reasonable reflection of the low probability. While US sanctions and general pressure exist, these have not historically led to rapid leadership changes in Cuba. The recent news is mixed, with some indicating