US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?

The market resolves in 3 days, and the current price for YES is $0.135, implying a 13.5% probability. Recent news indicates that a US-Iran deal has been delayed, with Trump extending the deadline for language finalization. This suggests significant hurdles remain. The declining price trend over the last 7 days further supports a bearish outlook. While there's a whale position with a YES bias, their current PnL is negative, and conviction is low. The existence of related markets with later deadli