Ebola case in the US by June 30?
Last analyzed · by gemini
YES price
22.5¢
NO price
77.5¢
24h volume
$15K
Liquidity
$10K
AI recommendation
HOLDYES probability
22.5%
Confidence
80%
End date
2026-06-30
Key insight
The market is currently priced at $0.225 for YES, indicating a 22.5% probability. Given the time remaining (41.3 days) and the historical rarity of Ebola cases in the US, this probability seems reasonable. While there has been a recent price increase, the overall risk of a confirmed case within the US by June 30, 2026, remains low. The recent news focuses on outbreaks in Africa, not the US. The social intelligence provided is unrelated to Ebola.