Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?

The market resolves on June 15, 2026, which is very soon (less than 15 days away). Recent news indicates ongoing hostilities, with Hezbollah shelling Israeli vehicles and Israel expanding strikes in Lebanon, despite a reported ceasefire extension. The price trend for YES is sharply declining, from a high of $0.51 to the current $0.10, suggesting a strong market consensus against a permanent peace deal being reached imminently. The description specifies a *permanent* peace deal, not a temporary c